Throughout much of 2014, it was painfully obvious that if the GOP didn’t act on immigration reform, the issue would become a big factor in the 2016 GOP presidential primary, perhaps making it harder for Republicans to address the issue — and with it, their problem with Latinos heading into another national election.
In an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep that was published this morning, President Obama stirred the pot further. He said “nativist” elements within the GOP were holding up action, noting that his recent executive actions on deportations pose a challenge for Republicans who do want to act but don’t want to take on those “nativists”:
“The question then becomes, by me having taken these actions, does that spur those voices in the Republican Party who I think genuinely believe immigration is good for our country? Does it spur them to work once again with Democrats and my administration to get a reasonable piece of legislation done?
“Or does it simply solidify what I do think is a nativist trend in parts of the Republican Party? And if it’s the latter, then probably we’re not going to get much more progress done, and it’ll be a major debate in the next presidential election.”
A new CNN poll illustrates the depth of this divide among Republicans and the degree to which it could loom in the coming GOP presidential primary. The poll finds that among Republicans, Jeb Bush leads all the other hopefuls.
But note the findings on immigration: A plurality of Republicans (35 percent) say they are less likely to vote for Bush because he has supported plans to legalize some undocumented immigrants. And an even larger plurality of Republicans (42 percent) say they are less likely to support him because he declared that undocumented immigrants are driven by an “act of love” that shows concern for their families.
Bush, you will recall, stirred up a big debate among Republicans when he outlandishly suggested that many undocumented immigrants, while undeniably lawbreakers, are in a morally complex situation (they are trying to better the lives of themselves and their families) and just might have something to contribute to American society. This is apparently a liability among a large swath of GOP voters.
Now, it’s worth noting that those saying they are less likely to support Bush still represent a minority of Republicans overall. But as we’ve seen, GOP primary candidates tend to talk to that conservative minority.
As I’ve argued before, we shouldn’t dismiss the views of Republicans who are unable to support legalization. This isn’t necessarily “nativism.” For many, rewarding lawbreakers (even if their plights are morally complex) violates fundamental principles of fairness, precluding acceptance of “amnesty” in any form. But this polling is a reminder that among many Republicans, opposition to legalization of any kind remains in force — the primary obstacle to any kind of reform compromise that both parties might support.
Republicans failed to act last year because they were unwilling to do the hard policy work of determining whether there are any circumstances under which they can accept legalization. But it’s not clear how long Republicans can avoid grappling with this question. As GOP Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, a supporter of reform that includes legalization, puts it:
“If we don’t address immigration reform, we’ll find it very difficult, as Republicans, to win national office…We’re a major political party. We’re expected to have a rational approach on these big issues. And on immigration the party as a whole I don’t think has had a very rational approach. But we can’t avoid that now. We’re in charge of the House and the Senate.”
Hopefully, a Bush run will force this debate to the fore.
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* OBAMA TO WIELD ‘VETO PEN’: Another nugget from the NPR interview with the President:
“I suspect there are going to be some times where I’ve got to pull that pen out. And I’m going to defend gains that we’ve made in health care; I’m going to defend gains that we’ve made on environment and clean air and clean water.”
Of course, with Republicans openly rooting for the Supreme Court to gut the health law where they failed to do so through the legislative and political process, Obama may not be able to defend health reform from the continuing GOP onslaught.
* HILLARY FAR AHEAD OF ELIZABETH WARREN: The new CNN poll also finds that Hillary Clinton is far ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the evolving Dem primary: Clinton leads Warren among Democrats by 66-9.
Of course, it’s very early. And the virtue of a Warren candidacy — or any other serious challenge to Clinton from the left — would be to prompt a serious debate about the real divisions that remain among Democrats over the party’s economic agenda. That would happen even if the progressive challenger is seen as a long shot.
* HILLARY LEADS GOP CHALLENGERS: The CNN poll also finds Clinton leading Jeb Bush among Americans overall by 54-41; she leads Chris Christie by 56-39; she leads Rand Paul by 58-38; and she leads Ted Cruz by 60-35.
* OBAMA-NOMICS NOT BIG DISASTER GOP CLAIMS: Paul Krugman’s column explains that the real enemy of the recovery has been austerity, not (as Republicans claim) Obamacare and the President’s alleged hatred of the private sector. And now we’re seeing the proof:
The truth is that the private sector has done surprisingly well under Mr. Obama, adding 6.7 million jobs since he took office, compared with just 3.1 million at this point under President George W. Bush. Corporate profits have soared, as have stock prices. What held us back was unprecedented public-sector austerity: At this point in the Bush years, government employment was up by 1.2 million, but under Mr. Obama it’s down by 600,000. Sure enough, now that this de facto austerity is easing, the economy is perking up.
Of course, none of this is even acknowledged inside large swaths of the Conservative Entertainment Complex, so is any of it actually happening?
* OBAMA IS A PRETTY LOUSY SOCIALIST: Related to the above: E.J. Dionne drops this gem:
It’s odd that so many continue to see Obama as a radical and a socialist even as the Dow hits record levels and the wealthy continue to do very nicely. If he is a socialist, he is surely the most incompetent practitioner in the history of Marxism.
The serious point here: Even if the wealthy are raking it in and the recovery is gaining momentum, wages remain stagnant and the recovery’s gains are not achieving more equitable distribution — and those unrepentantly redistributive Democrats are the ones politically suffering for it.
START THINKING ABOUT 2016 SENATE MAP: The Hill has a good rundown of the 10 Senators who could very well lose reelection in 2016. Seven of them are Republicans from states Obama has carried.
It’s a reminder that winning back the Senate in two years is a real possibility for Democrats — though it is far from easy — and that we are already playing on a very different map than the one that cost Dems the Upper Chamber last month.
* AMERICANS AGREE ON LAW ENFORCEMENT REFORMS: Aaron Blake digs into a new Washington Post poll and finds that, while the public is polarized along racial and party lines about the true nature of the recent police shootings, there is broad consensus on what to do about the problem:
86 percent of Americans support requiring patrol officers in their areas to wear small video cameras while on duty…What’s a little more surprising, though, is the consensus on another issue related to the Ferguson and Eric Garner cases: independent prosecutors. The poll shows about the same percentage — 87 percent — support having these outsiders handle cases in which unarmed Americans are killed by police.
Law enforcement and criminal justice reform represent an area that has long been ripe for a left-right alliance of civil liberties progressives and libertarian conservatives. The public is there, too. Paging Congress…
* AND A QUICK SCHEDULING NOTE: For this week, your favorite blog will be on a scaled back schedule: We’ll be posting a Morning Plum at around 9:30 or 10:00 a.m., followed by another big, meaty post in the early afternoon, followed in the early evening by a Happy Hour Open Thread for your sounding-off pleasure. Enjoy the slow-news schedule while it lasts!
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